Everton vs Tottenham

Tottenham carry the stronger form, winning 3 of their last 5 (3-2 Brentford, 1-0 Burnley, 3-1 Bournemouth) and scoring in every game, while Everton are stuck in low-scoring stalemates with three 0-0 draws in their last five and only 2 goals total. The standings gap is wide at 26 points and a GD swing of 24. H2H is mixed at Goodison Park, where recent meetings produced a 1-1 draw (2023), a 0-0 (2021) and a 5-4 thriller, suggesting Everton can stay competitive at home and avoid heavy defeats here. The big caveat is Tottenham losing Son (17 goals, 10 assists), their highest output player, which trims their ceiling and is why this is not high confidence. Everton also lose Doucoure (7 goals) plus four others, weakening their already shallow attack. With no venue records available and conflicting H2H signals, the lean is a narrow Tottenham edge driven by form and squad quality, with Maddison and Porro likely to drive the creation in Son's absence.

• -Tottenham sit 5th on 66 pts versus Everton 15th on 40 pts, a 26-point gap
• -Spurs won 3 of their last 5 and scored 9 goals; Everton drew 3 of 5 and scored just 2 across the run
• -Son (17 goals, 10 assists) is out for Tottenham, while Everton lose Doucoure (7 goals) and 4 others

Midfield is a control proxy from squad ratings, assists, and points per game, not a possession metric.