Lean
Newcastle to win
2-1low confidence
58%
Newcastle
24%
Draw
18%
Luton
Newcastle are heavily favored on quality, sitting 7th on 60 points with a +23 goal difference against 18th-placed Luton on 26 points and a -33 difference. Home form is mixed at 3 wins and 2 losses in the last 5, with both losses (2-3 to Man City, 2-4 to Liverpool) coming against top opposition. The standout concern is availability: Isak, the 21-goal leader, plus Joelinton, Tonali, Pope and Willock are all out, which lowers the ceiling. Luton arrive in good form, unbeaten across their last 5 with three wins and two draws, and they won the most recent meeting 1-0 in December 2023. That recent H2H and Luton's run, set against Newcastle's missing key men, keep confidence low. Still, Gordon (11 goals, 10 assists) and Bruno (rating 7.51) give Newcastle enough at St. James' Park to lean home, with a tight 2-1 the most likely outcome.
- -Newcastle sit 7th on 60 pts with a +23 GD versus Luton 18th on 26 pts with a -33 GD, a large standings gap.
- -Newcastle's top scorer A. Isak (21 goals) is listed unavailable, alongside Joelinton, Tonali, Pope and Willock, thinning the attack.
- -Luton are unbeaten in their last 5 (3W 2D) including a 1-0 win in the most recent H2H, so their form is solid.
Data-driven analysis, not betting advice.
Player to watch
A. Gordon
Top available attacker with 11 goals and 10 assists in 2900 minutes and the squad's best rating at 7.40, likely the focal point with Isak out.
11 goals10 assists2900 mins55 shotsrating 7.402857
Team strength
Rated 0 to 100 from cached dataNewcastleLuton
62Overall35
84Attack46
30Defense0
68Midfield33
73Form87
Midfield is a control proxy from squad ratings, assists, and points per game, not a possession metric.
Ask the analyst
Grounded in this match dataAsk about the verdict, the form, the goals markets, or anything in the data below.
Data-driven analysis, not betting advice.
Squad and season stats: Newcastlev
| Player | Impact | G | A | Min | Sh | Rt | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. IsakAttacker | 77 | 21 | 2 | 2265 | 64 | 7.166666 | 1y 0r |
| A. GordonAttacker | 71 | 11 | 10 | 2900 | 55 | 7.402857 | 12y 1r |
| C. WilsonAttacker | 63 | 9 | 1 | 993 | 30 | 6.865 | 3y 0r |
| H. BarnesMidfielder | 61 | 5 | 3 | 794 | 18 | 6.947619 | 2y 0r |
| J. MurphyMidfielder | 61 | 3 | 7 | 1193 | 21 | 7.23 | 1y 0r |
| Bruno GuimarãesMidfielder | 61 | 7 | 8 | 3268 | 32 | 7.505405 | 8y 0r |
| A. ElangaAttacker | 56 | 5 | 9 | 2434 | 43 | 6.894444 | 1y 0r |
| K. TrippierDefender | 55 | 1 | 10 | 2239 | 6 | 7.333333 | 5y 0r |
| M. RitchieMidfielder | 52 | 1 | 0 | 116 | 6 | 6.666666 | 1y 0r |
| S. LongstaffMidfielder | 46 | 6 | 2 | 2748 | 27 | 6.888571 | 7y 0r |
| F. SchärDefender | 43 | 4 | 1 | 3054 | 23 | 6.997222 | 5y 0r |
| D. BurnDefender | 41 | 2 | 2 | 2732 | 17 | 6.966666 | 4y 0r |
| M. AlmirónMidfielder | 39 | 3 | 1 | 1947 | 32 | 6.896969 | 2y 0r |
| JoelintonMidfielder | 36 | 2 | 1 | 1282 | 15 | 7.021052 | 6y 0r |
| S. BotmanDefender | 35 | 2 | 2 | 1385 | 8 | 6.894117 | 2y 0r |
| L. MileyMidfielder | 34 | 1 | 3 | 1205 | 6 | 6.823529 | 1y 0r |
| M. DúbravkaGoalkeeper | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1984 | 0 | 7.204347 | 1y 0r |
| E. AndersonMidfielder | 31 | 0 | 2 | 1022 | 14 | 6.894736 | 3y 0r |
| J. RamseyMidfielder | 31 | 1 | 1 | 856 | 15 | 6.826666 | 2y 0r |
| N. PopeGoalkeeper | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1346 | 1 | 7.006666 | 1y 0r |
| T. LivramentoDefender | 25 | 1 | 0 | 1312 | 2 | 6.8 | 1y 0r |
| S. TonaliMidfielder | 25 | 1 | 0 | 439 | 2 | 6.825 | 2y 0r |
| J. WillockMidfielder | 24 | 1 | 0 | 419 | 6 | 6.633333 | 0y 0r |
| J. LascellesDefender | 24 | 1 | 0 | 1081 | 5 | 6.78125 | 4y 0r |
| L. HallDefender | 23 | 1 | 0 | 777 | 5 | 6.761111 | 2y 0r |
| E. KrafthDefender | 19 | 0 | 0 | 926 | 2 | 6.757142 | 2y 0r |
| W. OsulaAttacker | 17 | 0 | 0 | 804 | 15 | 6.465 | 4y 0r |
| O. VlachodimosGoalkeeper | 13 | 0 | 0 | 450 | 0 | 6.64 | 0y 0r |
| P. DummettDefender | 10 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 5.95 | 0y 0r |
| A. MurphyDefender | 7 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 6.45 | 0y 0r |
| J. WhiteMidfielder | 7 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 6.45 | 1y 0r |
| M. TargettDefender | 5 | 0 | 0 | 85 | 0 | 6.3 | 1y 0r |
| L. KariusGoalkeeper | 5 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 0 | 6.3 | 0y 0r |
| Ben ParkinsonAttacker | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 6.2 | 0y 0r |
| I. HaydenMidfielder | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| M. GillespieGoalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| M. LongstaffMidfielder | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| Remmi Eugene SavageDefender | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| J. Turner-CookeMidfielder | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| Jamie MileyMidfielder | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| L. De BolleMidfielder | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| James Alan HuntleyMidfielder | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| Ciaran ThompsonDefender | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| Cameron FergusonAttacker | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| Ellis StantonMidfielder | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| G. KuolAttacker | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| Dylan CharltonDefender | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| A. HarrisonGoalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| H. AshbyDefender | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| R. FraserMidfielder | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| K. DarlowGoalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| Javier ManquilloDefender | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| J. HendrickMidfielder | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| J. LewisDefender | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| A. Saint-MaximinForward | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| K. WattsDefender | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| Michael NdiweniAttacker | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| Amadou DialloAttacker | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| T. HernesMidfielder | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| Aidan HarrisGoalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
Squad and season stats: Lutonv
| Player | Impact | G | A | Min | Sh | Rt | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. MorrisAttacker | 59 | 11 | 4 | 2866 | 59 | 7.007894 | 4y 0r |
| R. BarkleyMidfielder | 53 | 5 | 4 | 2622 | 47 | 7.15625 | 6y 0r |
| E. AdebayoAttacker | 50 | 10 | 0 | 1418 | 24 | 6.703703 | 1y 0r |
| L. BerryMidfielder | 50 | 2 | 1 | 310 | 6 | 6.594117 | 1y 0r |
| A. DoughtyMidfielder | 49 | 2 | 8 | 2937 | 13 | 7.032432 | 5y 0r |
| C. OgbeneAttacker | 41 | 4 | 1 | 1993 | 18 | 7.036666 | 1y 0r |
| A. Sambi LokongaMidfielder | 37 | 1 | 3 | 1310 | 4 | 7.070588 | 4y 0r |
| C. WoodrowAttacker | 37 | 1 | 1 | 408 | 11 | 6.7 | 2y 0r |
| T. ChongMidfielder | 35 | 4 | 0 | 1993 | 15 | 6.742424 | 4y 0r |
| R. BurkeDefender | 35 | 0 | 4 | 1663 | 7 | 6.872727 | 5y 0r |
| T. KaminskiGoalkeeper | 34 | 0 | 0 | 3406 | 0 | 6.93421 | 3y 0r |
| A. TownsendForward | 33 | 1 | 3 | 1228 | 11 | 6.707407 | 1y 0r |
| T. MengiDefender | 33 | 1 | 0 | 2470 | 11 | 6.803333 | 3y 0r |
| G. OshoDefender | 31 | 2 | 0 | 1848 | 9 | 6.814285 | 3y 0r |
| I. KaboréDefender | 30 | 0 | 2 | 1734 | 4 | 6.8 | 7y 0r |
| J. BrownAttacker | 30 | 2 | 0 | 1019 | 16 | 6.768421 | 4y 0r |
| T. LockyerDefender | 30 | 1 | 1 | 1173 | 6 | 6.921428 | 4y 0r |
| M. AndersenDefender | 26 | 1 | 0 | 399 | 3 | 6.85 | 1y 0r |
| J. ClarkMidfielder | 26 | 1 | 1 | 1305 | 9 | 6.604545 | 4y 0r |
| A. BellDefender | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1722 | 2 | 6.635 | 0y 0r |
| M. NakambaMidfielder | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1133 | 4 | 6.76923 | 5y 0r |
| P. MpanzuMidfielder | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1093 | 7 | 6.444444 | 1y 0r |
| J. SheaGoalkeeper | 15 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 0y 0r |
| R. GilesDefender | 13 | 0 | 0 | 500 | 2 | 6.545454 | 0y 0r |
| D. HashiokaDefender | 12 | 0 | 0 | 594 | 1 | 6.45 | 0y 0r |
| F. OnyedinmaMidfielder | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6.4 | 0y 0r |
| Z. NelsonMidfielder | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 6.2 | 0y 0r |
| J. JohnsonDefender | 1 | 0 | 0 | 75 | 0 | 5.9 | 1y 0r |
| T. HolmesDefender | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| M. MaceyGoalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| D. PereiraMidfielder | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| E. ThorpeMidfielder | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| A. PeppleAttacker | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| L. WatsonMidfielder | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| J. LukerMidfielder | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| A. PiesoldMidfielder | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| Jake BurgerMidfielder | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| Dominic MartinsMidfielder | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| Carlos GomesAttacker | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| L. FreemanMidfielder | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| J. McAteeAttacker | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| J. TaylorAttacker | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| Taylan HarrisAttacker | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| C. ChigozieDefender | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| T. KrulGoalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| D. PottsDefender | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| G. ReaDefender | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| A. CampbellMidfielder | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| A. MuskweAttacker | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| A. Francis-ClarkeDefender | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
| C. PettitMidfielder | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0y 0r |
Last 5 formv
Newcastle
- W3-1vs Aston Villa (away)
- W2-0vs Fulham (away)
- L2-3vs Manchester City (home)
- W3-0vs Sunderland (away)
- L2-4vs Liverpool (away)
Luton
- W4-0vs Brighton (home)
- W2-1vs Everton (away)
- W2-1vs Bolton (away)
- D1-1vs Burnley (away)
- D0-0vs Bolton (home)
Head to headv
- 2023-12-23Luton 1-0 Newcastleat Kenilworth Road
- 2018-01-06Newcastle 3-1 Lutonat St. James' Park (Newcastle upon Tyne)
Venue recordv
Newcastle at St. James' Park: no record available.
Luton away record: no record available.
Injuries and unavailablev
- Newcastle E. Anderson
- Newcastle Joelinton
- Newcastle N. Pope
- Newcastle M. Targett
- Newcastle S. Tonali
- Newcastle A. Isak
- Newcastle J. Lascelles
- Newcastle J. Willock
- Luton M. Andersen
- Luton T. Lockyer
- Luton M. Nakamba
Standings contextv
Newcastle#7, 60 pts, GD 23
Luton#18, 26 pts, GD -33
Latest newsexternal reportsv
No recent news available.